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Market Analysis: Global Liquidity Rebound and Enhanced Fed Rate Cut Expectations, BTC May See Breakthrough in Q4

Summary: According to on-chain analyst @arndxt_xo, Bitcoin is currently in a 'non-correlated window period' similar to February 2025, with prices ranging from 100-108K. The price trend of BTC has not yet synchronized with macro liquidity, but historical data shows that changes in the M2 money supply of major central banks globally lead BTC performance in 80% ...

According to on-chain analyst @arndxt_xo, Bitcoin is currently in a 'non-correlated window period' similar to February 2025, with prices ranging from 100-108K. The price trend of BTC has not yet synchronized with macro liquidity, but historical data shows that changes in the M2 money supply of major central banks globally lead BTC performance in 80% of cases.

M2 year-on-year growth has turned positive, coupled with multiple Fed officials hinting at a rate cut as early as July, and the FOMC dot plot also supports a rate cut once this year. Technically, BTC has confirmed a golden cross, with the weekly trend still intact; if it breaks through 108K, it could test 133K. If liquidity continues to improve and policy shifts occur, Q4 could be a key window for BTC's upward momentum.

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