Summary: After a brief rally last week, Bitcoin has pulled back again. With the Fed raising interest rates, inflation, COVID-19, and geopolitical changes, the crypto market faces more and more uncertainties, and retail investors are concerned about whether the market will go bull or bear next. Han Feng, the author of "Blockchain and The Wealth of ...

After a brief rally last week, Bitcoin has pulled back again. With the Fed raising interest rates, inflation, COVID-19, and geopolitical changes, the crypto market faces more and more uncertainties, and retail investors are concerned about whether the market will go bull or bear next.

Han Feng, the author of "Blockchain and The Wealth of Nations", believes that it is impossible to push Bitcoin to a "big bull market" by market forces alone.

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Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $69,000 in November last year, which has risen more than 20 times compared with the low of about $3,000 in 2018, but compared with the 100-fold bull market in 2013 and 2017, this increase pales in comparison. 

Han Feng believes that last year's bull market did not "fly into the sky".

“When Bitcoin reached $69k, I didn’t have that crazy feeling. At that time, I felt that the bull market was far from here. Due to various factors, it was not fully released. It was like a volcano that was suffocated when it was supposed to erupt, but the energy was still there. You don't know when it will explode," he said. 

"It's both a bad thing and a good thing. The bad thing is that it didn't become a real big bull market, and it didn't rush to the highest possible point. The good thing is that it doesn't consume all the opportunities that follow." Han Feng added.

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Another concern is the bottom feature. Han Feng analyzed: "The bottom characteristics of the history bear market are very obvious, and each time it was lower than the previous one. But the recent retracement has repeatedly formed three bottoms, namely last year's $29K, 30K, and $33K a few days ago. Each bottom is almost a little bit higher than the previous one."

"The general feature is that although after so much pressure, its bottom is gradually rising. My general prediction is a small bear-and-bull cycle."

Some traditional market watchers predict that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the currencies of emerging market economies such as India, Mexico and other developing countries may depreciate, which may boost the demand for Bitcoin in these markets.

Han Feng also believes that the occurrence of black swan events such as war is beneficial to the adoption of Bitcoin.

He said: "Once there is a panic in the financial system in society, gold will rise, and war will also make gold rise. Why? Gold is not controlled by any government, it is formed by the market. It is the consensus of civil wealth. Bitcoin and gold are the same at this point, they are consensus. People don’t believe in any government, and eventually, they have to turn to gold and Bitcoin.”

Han Feng also reminded that the current consolidation is likely to last for a long time.

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With the emergence of DeFi, NFT, GameFi and other applications, Ethereum is not only a digital asset but also the cornerstone of crypto applications.

Han Feng is optimistic about the future trend of Ethereum, he said: "DEFI, GAMEFI, Metaverse...There are so many applications on Ethereum, and there are real users, which is fundamentally different from 2018. It will develop more and more healthily, and in general, we should have confidence in it.”

According to Bitpush Terminal, ETH surged to an all-time high of $4,859.50 in November, trading at $2,500 at press time, still down 50% from its all-time high.

By Mary Liu