Summary: Author: Weisha Zhu ——Answers to the concepts in the article "Invite Satoshi Nakamoto to Welcome the New World" 4.4 The Fed adjusts the economy's difficulties and solutions 4.4.1 The history of the Fed's currency issuance (1)      gold standard stage      credit currency stage      post-financial crisis era 4.4.2 Comments on the Fed's quantitative easing The complete destruction of ...

Author: Weisha Zhu

——Answers to the concepts in the article "Invite Satoshi Nakamoto to Welcome the New World"


4.4 The Fed adjusts the economy's difficulties and solutions

4.4.1 The history of the Fed's currency issuance (1)

     gold standard stage

     credit currency stage

     post-financial crisis era

4.4.2 Comments on the Fed's quantitative easing

The complete destruction of the credit

Conclusions

4.4.3 Analyzing the Fed's tricks

The Fed's Adjustment Thinking Is Outdated

The Fed's misalignment

Living within our means or spending ahead

The Federal Reserve under the Bitcoin Standard

written in the back

The Federal Reserve and fiat currency are a matter of course; who would doubt him? Many of the best minds in the world have devoted their lives to it. It is impossible to draw different conclusions according to the current thinking and trajectory. Copernicus's heliocentric theory created a new theoretical basis, and it took 140 years for the consensus of the whole society to be reached. On this basis, human beings have a preliminary understanding of the universe. The research on the Federal Reserve and fiat currency means that it is necessary to analyze from another angle to reach different conclusions. With the practice of blockchain and Bitcoin, let us analyze and compare fiat currency from the perspective of blockchain.

4.4.1 The history of the Fed's currency issuance (1)

gold standard stage

The Federal Reserve has been on the gold standard since its establishment on December 23, 1913. In 1914, the total base money of the Federal Reserve was 3.4 billion U.S. dollars. It reached 70 billion in 1971, on the eve of the end of the gold standard. The average annual growth rate is 5.55%.

credit currency stage

How to gain social trust when the gold standard was abolished in 1972? The Federal Reserve treats the treasury bonds issued by the federal government with future tax guarantees as gold and strictly imitates the rules of the gold standard to issue currency—specifically, as many treasury bonds as the central bank holds, it will issue as much base currency. Other assets cannot be used as collateral for printing money.

Since the mid-1980s, the issuance of the U.S. dollar base currency has depended on the amount of treasury bonds held by the Federal Reserve. As we said earlier, treasury bonds are deterministic credit, which can also be regarded as a model of living within our means, and the above model is also reasonable. The gap with the gold standard is the model of borrowing money first and then repaying the money. The quality of the collateral is not bad, but it has elements of a bubble.

Until 2007, this system imitating the gold standard, has been running smoothly. As a result, the Federal Reserve only needs to adjust the benchmark interest rate up and down to resolve various financial problems or crises easily. currency is just a natural increase or decrease with interest rate adjustments.

The U.S. dollar base currency has maintained a stable growth rate, and its amount has also increased from 144.5 billion U.S. dollars at the end of 1980 to 830 billion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007. The 27-year growth rate is 6.69%, and for more than 20 years, the price stability of the U.S. dollar system has been maintained. Therefore, growth rate figures are acceptable.

post-financial crisis era

Beginning in 2007, the subprime loan problem in the United States began to ferment, which eventually triggered the global financial crisis in September 2008. Note that the global economy has been integrated. If there is no rescue, it will be the same as Luna losing 40 billion and the block circle losing 500 billion.

In order to save the market, the Federal Reserve quickly lowered the benchmark interest rate to the lowest level in history, 0-0.25%-but this time, the interest rate cut could not solve the problem. The Federal Reserve and the federal government have been facing accumulated housing loans for more than ten years, and Institutions that are too big to fail are on the verge of bankruptcy. The financial tsunami hits.

Cutting interest rates is foolish because the cause is not an industrial problem. A is sick, and B also takes medicine, which is not targeted enough.

The cause of the financial tsunami is very simple. It is the unequal risks and interests of executives in the financial system. However, loopholes in the system have already appeared, and everyone will die if they don't save them. Like the Luna of the blockchain, all ecological projects are dead, worse than Luna. The bailout is right. It is absolutely wrong that bad guys are not getting punished and given big bonuses. All layers are responsible, from the design of subprime mortgages to the issuance of subprime mortgages. Let it go once, and there will be endless troubles.

The Federal Reserve and the federal government went down in person.

Since November 2008, the Federal Reserve has implemented three rounds of Q.E., buying mortgage-backed bonds (MBS) and institutional bonds of government-backed enterprises that are no longer wanted in the market so that people no longer have a fear of "toxic assets";

The second is that the federal government has introduced a nearly trillion-dollar rescue plan to directly buy shares in institutions that are too big to fail on the verge of bankruptcy to solve the liquidity crisis of the entire financial system.

It led to a sharp increase in the printing of U.S. dollar money.

At the beginning of September 2008, the assets of the Federal Reserve were only 905.3 billion U.S. dollars, but by the end of 2008, it had soared to 2,239.5 billion U.S. dollars, which means—

It took the United States 200 years to print 900 billion U.S. dollars;

Just in the last three months of 2008, 1.33 trillion U.S. dollars were printed; (another is saying that it is 1.675 trillion U.S. dollars)

With the implementation of QE2 and QE3, by the end of September 2014, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet had expanded to 4.45 trillion U.S. dollars, equivalent to five times that before September 2008.

Let alone the tremendous changes in the amount of money printed, what is more core is that the Fed's money printing collateral (assets purchased) has undergone fundamental changes. Before 2008, more than 90% of the assets of the Federal Reserve consisted of various treasury bonds, representing the credit of the U.S. federal government. However, since the end of 2008, the proportion of MBS has risen rapidly, and by September 2014, it even accounted for 40% of the assets of the Federal Reserve Open Market Account (SOMA).

At this point, more than half of the credit of the U.S. dollar currency is supported by the federal government's credit, and U.S. real estate loans back a small half. National taxation is easy to assess, and the market has different views on the risks of MBS. Trash can be turned into money; this method is fantastic. Unfortunately, this trick is also contagious, and we will say later that the People's Bank of China has also adopted it. Although the bourgeoisie has few people, it has a sharp sickle.

Everyone initially thought the printing speed of 1.33 trillion in 3 months in 2008 was already the limit of U.S. dollar money printing. So what is printing 1.3 trillion in 3 months? In March 2020, 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars can be published in 3 weeks! See Figure 1 for a graph jump.

Recall that from the end of 2017 to 2018, the Federal Reserve has always vowed to continue to shrink its balance sheet until all MBS are kicked out of its balance sheet. By 2020, the balance sheet may shrink to 20,000-30,000 billion dollars. By 2020, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has become 6 trillion U.S. dollars, and the amount of MBS has not decreased but has increased!

image.png

Figure 1 Change curve of total Fed assets ($ million) Source: Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute

 In 2022, it becomes 8.9 trillion. 14 years from 900 billion in 2008, the annual growth rate is 17.8%. This data is unreasonable. It is almost impossible for an industry to make money and maintain a 14-year growth rate of 17.8%. Enterprises that can do it must be rare. When the person who masters the ruler finds out that moving the ruler can make money, he can use this money to harvest the whole world, and it is not a crime; who would not do it? When I do, you all kneel again, obviously better than a gun. The whole world is stupid? No, this is the monopoly's power, and the monopoly will continue without new power. Once monopolized, what will you do to me if I charge randomly? The right to issue money is also a business. The right to issue banknotes is in the hands of one group, and arbitrariness is inevitable.

Relief is correct, but unrestricted relief is wrong. Both China's 4 trillion yuan and the U.S. rescue method are worth discussing. It was reasonable before 2007, but the bailout methods in the post-financial era are suspected of stealing money. In 2007, Satoshi Nakamoto had already foreseen a significant financial event. When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, he believed that the central bank was destroying credit and devaluing the currency.

The arbitrary devaluation of fiat currency is unacceptable. Humans are stupid, can only see visible changes, and don't have much sense for slow changes, which created the tolerance of fiat currency depreciation. A constantly changing scale does not hold as a ruler. So the theoretical basis for fiat currency is absurd.

(1) A Hundred Years of Banknote Printing History of the U.S. Dollar

https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexinfo/2020-04-08/doc-iirczymi5134808.shtml

4.4.2 Comments on the Fed's quantitative easing

The complete destruction of the credit

Figure 1 is the total assets curve of the Fed's Q.E. Excerpted from Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute. These two bailouts consisted of 5 rounds, and the first red circle included 3 rounds: 2008.11-2010.03, 2010.11-2011.06, 2012.09-2014.10, making the total assets of the Federal Reserve reach 4.5 trillion. The second red circle is the next two rounds: 2019.10-2020.03, 2020.03-present, the unlimited Q.E. mode is on. Now the Fed's total assets are $8.9 trillion.

The first round of bailout funds went to U.S. mortgage-backed securities MBS1.25 trillion. Many foreign governments bought this part of the bonds. I heard that the Chinese government bought hundreds of billions. With this purchase, global central banks breathed a sigh of relief. The United States fulfilled its international responsibilities. 300 billion long-term national debt, the money is in the hands of the government. The money of 1.25 trillion and 125 billion rescue agencies has entered the financial system and the recipients of the rescue. The first bailout was right, rebuilding the credit of financial institutions. This part of the rescue did not cause the stock market to rise, and there was a slight decline at the beginning. However, the stock market began to rise four months after the rescue. By the end of the first rescue, the S&P stock index had risen to 1145 points, almost doubled, and it was only a 35% difference from the all-time high of 1561 in October 2007. In fact, the U.S. economy is out of danger. It should stop there and let the economy recuperate on its own. The second round of bailouts was a way to stimulate the economy. They bought 600 billion U.S. treasury bonds. When the second round of quantification started, the stock index was already at 1196 points. Re-stimulation is taking life-saving medicine as a vitamin. Stop stimulating the stock index to turn around and down is actually the intrinsic value balance requirement of the stock index, and the price center should be consolidated. But they started the third round of stimulus. This round is not a bailout but a performance project. Fed stimulus is inflating the bubble.

By 2014, the S&P of the U.S. stock market had reached 2094. The stock index surpassed the previous high of 1561 points by 34%. It usually takes a long time to recover from a deadly illness, but it is an artificial miracle to recover so quickly. It closed at 2058 points in 2014, 2043 points in 2015, and 2238 points in 2016. It rose by 8.7% in two years. See Figure 2. It is the inherent adjustment requirement of the stock index, sideways adjustment. Trump became the President of the United States, and the Federal Reserve began to withdraw water, see Figure 1.

The new crown began in 2019, and the fourth round of quantitative easing started in the United States in October 2019. The stock market did not fall, and it was obviously wrong to begin feeding medicine. It was initially planned to end in March 2020. But the epidemic was out of control. In March 2020, the stock index turned around and down, but the U.S. policymakers kidnapped the stock market, making it easy to make wrong decisions. Stimulus makes sense as stocks fall below value. But the stimulus was too strong. The S&P rose 68% from 2,233 to 3,756 in the four years of Trump's reign. More than the 2019 close of 3230. Not only recovered but also strong. There is no standard for the Fed's stimulus. The stock index is the standard for judging the financial market. The relationship between the total market value and GDP is correct within the historical range. When it is below the level and off the line, it can be said that it is a rescue issue.

Figure 1 shows the changes in the amount of funds stimulated by the Federal Reserve. From the rescue point of view, only the Fed's first rescue can be confirmed. Even the first bailout was in a good direction, but it benefited interest groups and was widely criticized. The second, third, and fifth times were not life-saving, and the fourth was a rescue but with too many medications. The stimulus money is not a natural roll of corporate profits but an opaque distribution that widens the gap between rich and poor and the value of power.

We have the following conclusions through the above analysis, which are the basis for proposing the Bitcoin dollar standard.

Conclusions

Conclusion 1: The Fed's adjustment to the economy has no quantitative indicators and is a brain-slapping adjustment. Indicators based directly on the stock market are much more reliable than the current industrial data collected. Because the stock market is a barometer of the economy, its sensitivity exceeds the so-called unemployment rate, inflation, and other data. These figures are lagging indicators. These two sets of indicators should be considered comprehensively.

Conclusion 2: The Federal Reserve cannot be used as a means for the government to regulate the economy. The economy has its natural law of growth, and every adjustment is an artificial change in the accumulation balance. It is also confirmed in the blockchain. It can also run naturally without the adjustment of the Federal Reserve. So-called quantitative easing has value as a lender of last resort. Inappropriate as a stimulus. Economic growth is an adjustment policy of the government. The Fed is wrong to assume responsibility for regulating the economy. Therefore, the Bitcoin standard does not give the Fed the responsibility to stimulate or regulate the economy.

Conclusion 3: The Fed relies on the secondary market to stabilize the dollar, which is no different from ordinary commodities. How can it become a standard?

Conclusion 4: The biggest flaw of artificially stimulating quantitative easing is that it is unfair and rewards speculation. As a rescue is to return to a normal state, it is to save a life, and There is no obligation to be strong.

Conclusion 5: The Federal Reserve lost its independence post-financial era.

Conclusion 6: The method of the Federal Reserve in the post-financial era, using assets with unclear values to support the U.S. dollar, is similar to a Ponzi scheme.

Conclusion 7: The Fed should maintain its currency stability, but the Fed lacks an anchor

Conclusion: Human beings need a common currency standard to solve the problem of the Federal Reserve.

 image.png

Figure 2 S & P annual line  Note: 666.79 corresponds to the 2009 annual line

 4.4.3 Analyzing the Fed's tricks

The Fed's Adjustment Thinking Is Outdated

The line of thought that the Federal Reserve continues begins with the days of the gold standard. At that time, the stock market was underdeveloped, and there were few listed companies. It was feasible to observe the economic operation with industrial data indicators. But when finance and industry keep pace, we still use the indicators of the early years when adjusting the economy, such as the inflation rate and employment rate. Intuition tells them that the stock market is very important, and their late quantitative easing is adjusting the indicators of the stock market. The stimulus greatly affects the stock market and has little impact on the industry. The stocks in the stock market have no competitive relationship, and the inflation caused by more currencies has been resolved by rising. The stock market responds to inflation by raising the overall price-earnings ratio PE. There is competition in the industry, and the over-issued currency cannot be fully digested with price increases. The Russo-Ukraine war caused the price of oil to rise. Oil is the foundation of the industry, and the industry finally has a foundation for the simultaneous rise. The rise is fast, and the fall is slow. The Fed's interest rate hike has suppressed demand, causing excess supply and reducing industry prices. But the prices of essential consumer goods are not easy to come down.

As a result of the stimulus, finance has conditions to correct inflation, but industry rarely has conditions, so people in finance take advantage of it as a whole. The financial people make policies that are always in their favor. Representatives of the House can only show their hands when they do not understand finance. We need a unified yardstick to measure finance and industry.

The rise of stocks and housing is not called inflation, but the rise of other products is called inflation. Why? A measure of inflation in the stock market is the upward shift in the price-to-earnings ratio. Everyone has to consider whether to invest in an industrial investment with a return of capital within five years. It does not matter if the stock is 30 times PE, that is, returns to capital in 30 years, and it does not matter if it is not profitable. The judgment of enterprise value is entirely different. Because I can sell immediately in the stock market, which is different from the industry, it makes sense that the stock market should have another set of macro standards that are the same as judging industries. The stock market has perfect micro-standards for evaluating companies, but there are no macro-standards. There are empirical judgments. For example, Buffett's judgment of the relationship between stocks and GDP is empirical. If a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15 times is the central line of value, and 10 times is the bottom line, the stock market needs to be rescued if it is below 10 times. We don't have the term financial inflation,  But when finance becomes an industry, it should be different from industry, so financial inflation is different from industrial inflation. Current inflation refers to industrial inflation. Because the stock market reflects growth, distinguishing between growth and inflation requires a value center. Why does a rise in industry prices mean inflation, but a rise in the stock market is not inflation? There is a grandstand effect in the stock market, that is, value transmission, which is actually the inflation of the stock market.

When Ethereum rises in the blockchain, the prices of the above projects all rise. Still, the projects on the non-Ethereum platform do not rise, the same as the dollar index rises, and the assets denominated in dollars increase in value. Is this inflation? Obviously, the currency did not increase, but the value to the currency of the different systems changed. It is a change in the ruler. There is no unified ruler for finance, which is a defect after the gold standard. It can still be tolerated if the fiat currency can achieve a low currency issuance rate during the gold standard. The average annual monetary growth rate of 17.8% far exceeds GDP growth. It is reasonable that the GDP growth rate is equal to the speed of currency issuance, which is the growth rate of Bitcoin when Bitcoin is the standard in Chapter 13. The growth of Bitcoin is market-regulated, priced by global participants, and reflects global economic growth.

From this perspective, it also shows that currency needs an anchor, which must be independent and fair. There is no anchor for legal tender, and arbitrary currency issuance is neither independent nor fair. These are the things the Federal Reserve wants to study. Holding on to outdated viewpoints cannot keep pace with the times.

The industry has industrial indicators, and finance has financial indicators. How can an adjustment parameter meet the needs of both parties simultaneously? Industrial investment has an intermediate process and speculation in the stock market by the second. A long-term investment is quite industrial. How can we distinguish between long-term and short-term funds in the stock market? The effect of a stimulus should be seen separately from industrial and financial indicators. For the fifth bailout, it is right not to raise interest rates, which shows that the Fed's policymakers know what they are doing. Later, They couldn't stand it anymore and raised the interest rate. It is very puzzling. No one wants bad assets, and If they sell treasury bonds, the statements are too ugly, which affects credit because people who read the Federal Reserve's statements are financial experts who are Extremely smart。

The Fed's misalignment

The Fed has only two hands, adjusting interest rates and the amount of money. The biggest problem is that it is not targeted enough.

The problem in 2008 was the subprime mortgage crisis, a problem caused by irresponsible finance. As an early warning, examining the appropriate ratio of finance and industry is necessary to avoid excessive financial injection. It is not only M1 but also M2 of commercial banks. What is the correct ratio of finance and industry? I have no idea. What is the right way to adjust now? I do not know, either. In 2014, the money supply increased by 17.8%. It could not say that the GDP can't reach it; few companies can reach such an indicator. The only thing that benefits are finance, which pushes up financial inflation. Financial inflation is not equal to industrial inflation. It is not the supply side and will not affect price increases on the supply side. But he is on the demand side, which will increase the demand of users and cause the consumption index to rise. When the stock market soared, coupled with the direct distribution of money, consumption was stimulated. Inflation also came.

Industrial inflation is due to supply shortages and industrial chain transfers caused by the epidemic and war, and interest rate hikes only treat the symptoms but not the root cause. From the perspective of supply chain transfer, it is right to cut interest rates. It is wrong to curb inflation and raise interest rates in this round to restrain industries. The rise in the stock market should be restrained.

To curb the stock market's rise, the currency should be tightened, and the currency issued should be withdrawn. The correct solution is to tighten the currency and curb the stock market bubble.

Is it okay to use currency issuance to target the stock market and use interest adjustments to target industries? Currency tightening also has an impact on the industry. It is a system and a process of dynamic balance. Simply put, there is no exact solution. It is what I said earlier that the Fed is a quack doctor and cannot be solved in a targeted manner. Anyone who is sick is a medicine with only a prescription: increase the interest rate, reduce the interest rate, issue currency, and collect currency.

The economy has natural growth characteristics, non-interference, and only assistance, and the establishment of assistance indicators is correct.

Living within our means or spending ahead

The Fed lived within its means before 2007. Each of us has our economic model. Some people live within their means, while others consume ahead of their consumption with loans, once changes in personal income during advanced consumption are prone to bad debts. For example, subprime loans. If you have as many holes as the Fed will cover for you, then consumption will go crazy. The post-financial era of the Fed model, that is, the model of unlimited quantitative easing has not been tested, and the consequences are difficult to assess. Intuitive feeling is not good. Now China calls the central bank Yangma; what does that mean? Mom, means unlimited liability. The Fed is about to become Meima is a mother too. A high degree of centralization in a democratic system, is it not a joke?

The market has accepted overconsumption, and many of these innovations are detrimental. Financial innovation has not been tested, and its long-term effect cannot be investigated. With the experimental site of the blockchain, it is possible to simulate the actual scene of the society and conduct experiments.

Pre-consumption is a phenomenon unique to a fiat currency because the currency depreciates. Advance consumption is earned. If it is Bitcoin USD standard deposit preservation, the price is constant, and the mode of living within our means is back. Human virtue is back.

People have three needs make money, maintain their lives, save for the future, and invest. Bitcoin dollar standard, the deposit is an investment. This investment will outperform GDP in the first 34 years. Deposits are an investment. Then it will grow synchronously with GDP, which is value preservation. You need to spend money to send your Bitcoin to the Federal Reserve, and he will give you UDAI equivalent to the US dollar. You spend it, and you can continue to spend it as the value of Bitcoin increases. To redeem your coins, give Fed the money back. The only reason to return it is that there is an additional 25% of the mortgage value, transfer the bitcoin to those who need it, and others may give you 100% UDAI. This explanation cannot be understood without reading Chapter 12.

The Federal Reserve under the Bitcoin Standard

We said earlier that the Federal Reserve is unsuitable for an economic adjustment department. The only suitable tasks are to maintain the stability of UDAI and the lender of last resort. The ultimate lender has a rescue object, has been mortgaged, and the loan is profitable. Moreover, the Federal Reserve has 25% collateralized bitcoin and Lending power for the market capitalization of Bitcoin held, which should be able to do the job.

During the rescue, the Bitcoin community also participated in the decision-making and played a supervisory role.

We always feel that something is wrong with the economy. The problem arises in the fiat currency. The Federal Reserve is the central bank's bank and cannot escape all problems. In fact, being the chairman of the Federal Reserve is a stressful role. Do more wrong more. It's not his fault; he's the one who took the blame because this is not a job that humans can do.

In the section of Chapter 12, "Realizing the Vision of the Bitcoin Dollar Standard," I canceled the Federal Reserve's function of some economic adjustments related to the Bitcoin standard. I am often asked why. This article is the explanation. The Fed is a genius, playing seamlessly from having an anchor to an anchorless process. If there is no competitor, it can keep playing. But Bitcoin came along, and it represented the people's revolt. Bitcoin was not strangled back then; now, it cannot be strangled. Either take the initiative to change yourself or others to replace you. Some say you moved the fed cheese; they won't use it. It is a group of brilliant people today, and if the voice of the people is loud enough, they are intelligent and will make rational judgments. Losing the Bitcoin dollar standard, the United States is at a disadvantage in the competition. The world's central banks are watching. The Fed is in the best position but is not without competition. Modern finance is better than guns, and ideas are better than finance. Satoshi Nakamoto challenged the old system alone, relying on the penetrating power of thought. My article hopes to awaken the public.

In the next section, we discuss the RMB, which is also very interesting.

written in the back

There is no theory in the blockchain, and everyone's understanding is very different. Many innovative and wrong concepts exist, such as the Internet of Value, blockchain computers, etc. We are trying to find out that Satoshi Nakamoto simultaneously popularized the values of Bitcoin, and we will explain this series of articles on Sun TV. The articles and TV explanations are complementary. Ten episodes of the program have been made. The following is the program catalog:

Episode 1 starts with the Bitcoin white paper

Episode 2 Does Bitcoin Have Value?

Episode 3 The Reason for Satoshi Nakamoto's Anonymity

Episode 4 The Root of All Evils is  Fiat Currency

Episode 5 Past, Present, and Future of Bitcoin

Episode 6 Blockchain Opens Pandora's Box; Satoshi Nakamoto Should Come Out

Episode 7 Four conditions for the rapid growth of Bitcoin

Episode 8 Nakamoto's Age, Gender, and Nationality

Episode 9 Cypherpunk - the birthplace of Satoshi Nakamoto's thought

Episode 10 None of the dead pioneers is Satoshi Nakamoto; he is still alive

TV corresponds to  6 of our articles; that is, the program explains the article's focus. The approximate broadcast time will be around the end of January, and the specific time will be announced separately. Sun TV's link is as follows:

https://www.youtube.com/@isuntv_hk/featur

The whole program is divided into two parts. The first part proves who Satoshi Nakamoto is, and the second is about the Bitcoin standard. The program will continue, followed by discussions and Q&A, hoping to form a Bitcoin-based theoretical system. Users are welcome to leave messages in the TV comment area, and viewers will be selected to participate in the conversation.