Is there a big market rising in Bitcoin halving in 2024?

Author: Weisha Zhu

——Answers to the concepts in the article "Invite Satoshi Nakamoto to Welcome the New World"

9.1 Compared with the Dow Jones index and gold, Bitcoin is the weakest

9.2 Mainstream funds are tightening, and Bitcoin has no water to

    No U. S. stock market significant rising at the end of 2024

    Funding Decide for Bitcoin to Recover to Highs

9.3 Attracting mainstream funds determines the fate of the halving market in 2024

    What is the third story?

    we only have dreams

written in the back

After Q&A No. 8, "How to value Bitcoin, starting from the failure of the PlanB model," was published, some readers felt "deafening," their original beliefs collapsed, and they felt misled by the opinion leaders. Their low tide persistence is waiting for the arrival of the big bull market in 2024. If there is no bull market, it will not survive. So ask me where the pessimistic basis for judging the halving of Bitcoin in 2024 comes from. And what should be done? What to do varies from person to person, so I don't make the random opinion.

It is right to tell the basis. My method is the logic of stock market analysts, not the wild guessing prediction of PlanB. The method is based on the existing facts and establishes a comparison object for analysis and inference. What is prone to the controversy here is the selection of comparison objects. First of all, is Bitcoin comparable? A comparison desecrates the sacred status of Bitcoin, just as we cannot desecrate religion. The second is whether currencies and commodities are the objects of comparison; I looked at the relevant charts carefully and selected gold and US stocks as comparison objects according to the principle of correlation. It is my analysis's conclusion and is for reference only.

9.1 Compared with the Dow Jones index and gold, Bitcoin is the weakest

We want to make predictions about Bitcoin for the next one to two years. According to the stock market practice, we need to use monthly indicators. Figure 1 is the monthly line of Bitcoin.

The entire second halving cycle lasted from July 2016 to May 2020 and reached a high point in 2017 and never reached the high point of this cycle after 2017. The second halving started in July 2016; the real upswing was in June 2017, and the consolidation took nearly a year. The market rise driven by the ICO ( initial coin offering) has attracted many funds and users from outside the circle.

The starting point for the third halving in May 2020 was $9452, and the market started in October 2020 which lasted only 5 months. October 2020 is the market for the Fed to release water. Bitcoin's high of $69,000 was created in November 2021. The low for this round was $15440 in November 2022. This low is below the December 2017 high of $19,891 and slightly above the 2017 close of $13,800. Counting the transaction volume is difficult because there are too many exchanges.

The two forms are Bitcoin halving market, but the reasons are entirely different, and the time when the market starts is also different. There is no possibility of a mechanical analogy. When described with the model of PlanB, it becomes a purely mathematical problem and downplays the reasons, which is, of course, wrong. In order to illustrate this problem, we posted Figure 2, showing the US Dow Jones monthly line, and Figure 3, showing the monthly trend of gold.

                           Figure 1 Bitcoin monthly indicators

In March 2020, the Federal Reserve began to rescue the market. The U.S. stock Dow Jones rose from $18,213 in March to $35,360 in August 2021. After that, it stopped moving and then consolidated at a high level. The rise continued until January 2022, hitting a new high of $36,952. The rising cycle is 22 months. Gold also rose from a low of $1451 in March 2020 to a historical high of $2075 in August 2020 and then began a high adjustment. The rising cycle is 5 months. Bitcoin fell with the U.S. stock market in March, and it didn't start its upward journey until Bitcoin rose to the same high it created in June 2019 in October 2020 and closed at $13,804. After 6 months of growth, it grew to a high of $65029 in April 2021 and approached the cross star. Compared with gold and Dow Jones, it is after the rise and falls first, which is the characteristic of weak stocks in the stock market. The general rule of the stock market is that the first-tier stocks have finished rising, the second-tier stocks have risen, the second-tier stocks have finished growing, and the third-tier stocks have risen. After all the rises are over, the bull market is over. Blockchain also has this phenomenon. Bitcoin rose first, causing the market value of Bitcoin to account for more than 70% of the market value of the blockchain, and then the market share of Bitcoin dropped to 40%, and the market ended. What is very bad is that after the third Bitcoin halving, the market has formed a double top, and the energy of the second Bitcoin top of 69,000 is small, and the escape of the last chips of the main force causes the graphic performance.

Figure 3 The monthly line of gold. Since May 2019, the trading volume has rapidly increased, and the United States only started the fourth quantitative easing in October 2019. Comparing Figure 2 and Figure 3, the volume of US stocks did not shrink significantly in May 2019, and the funds to buy gold had nothing to do with US stocks. Who is buying gold in advance? It's central banks. They predict the trend of the market and are absolute masters. Compared with Figure 1, Bitcoin has not increased in the same period, and the stock market and gold have funds to promote the rise. Looking at the Dow Jones, Gold, and Bitcoin as three stocks, Bitcoin is the weakest. It must be pointed out that the analogy is just a reference, and the effect of the mouse experiment may not be effective for humans. The difference between the stock market and Bitcoin should be smaller than the difference between humans and animals.

Figure 2 Dow Jones monthly chart

Figure 3 Monthly chart of gold

9.2 Mainstream funds are tightening, and Bitcoin has no water to

No U. S. stock market significant rising at the end of 2024

Why did US stocks rise? I said in the previous article that it was caused by the release of water by the Federal Reserve. So what will the Bitcoin market look like in 2024? Friends of Bitcoin and blockchain must recognize the status of the entire sector in economic activities; it is only the market value of a large blue chip stock in the US stock market. Bitcoin has no independent market rise, and it is post rose in the stock market. It's miserable to say that, according to the rising time of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is quite a second-tier stock in the US stock market. So whether there is a market rise for Bitcoin, it is necessary to analyze whether there will be a big market for US stocks.

After the US mid-term elections, the Republican Party has taken control of the House of Representatives, and it is unlikely that the US government will release water by the end of 2024. The 2024 presidential election is hard to judge. The first quarter of 2025 is also impossible to water. Therefore, the overall consolidation of the stock market is the best result. If it falls slightly, it will not rescue the market unless unpredictable factors such as economic collapse exist. Unpredictable means that the probability is small. That is, the possibility of the re-release of water is minimal. Consolidating the market is a stock market; if Bitcoin wants to rise, it must go out of the independent market. First of all, the first hurdle is recovery.

Funding decides for Bitcoin to Recover to Highs

This wave of blockchain has been the most injured. See Figures 1, 2, and 3. After three months of gains in late 2022 and early 2023, gold and U.S. stocks are not far from their highs. The difference between U.S. stocks and gold is 5%. 7%, the two are similar, while Bitcoin is 66% away from the high point. Bitcoin came out as an independent non-uptrend. It means only chasing behind. The chasing market in the stock market does not mean that the fallen stocks can be recovered, most of them are revalued, and the prices cannot return to their original positions.

At least 40 billion external funds are required for Bitcoin to recover because the market value of stablecoins has lost 40 billion. This number is not much for large investors. Without the intervention of large funds, it is impossible to push the price to 69,000 by relying on the funds in the blockchain alone. The blockchain does not have a very weighty analyst analysis report. Users may have illusions about the future. If they cannot be restored, it may shake the essential market of Bitcoin because hopes are shattered.

9.3 Attracting mainstream funds determines the fate of the halving market in 2024

What is the third story?

The rising of Bitcoin in 2017 was ICO, and the second rise included Non-fungible tokens NFT and Decentralized finance DEFI, which did not last. Can Ethereum 2.0 carry the banner of the third rise? It doesn't work. Will zero-knowledge proof work? I do not know.

There is also Metaverse and Web3; these applications are still early; look at Facebook's slump. On January 27, 2023, the stock price was $196, which is only a 49% drop from the high point, but it is better than Bitcoin. The story of the metaverse has not affected Bitcoin too much. The trend of Mata is most similar to that of Bitcoin. The small tale seems useless because Bitcoin is also a "big-cap stock." Only with a solid concept can it hope to attract mainstream funds. Mainstream funds are very sophisticated investors who will use their methods to compare Bitcoin with their favorite targets. If Bitcoin meets their appetite, the amount of funds is not a problem.

We only have dreams

Big technology companies are laying off employees, and 5%-10% of the layoffs. They have already tightened their belts. We don't know how long the severe winter will be. Two years is a short time, and Bitcoin will eventually be great. If you have no shortage of food and drink, like Satoshi Nakamoto, guarding, for the sake of faith is not a bad idea. Because the dollar will eventually collapse, and the fiat currency will eventually collapse. I'm afraid that you will collapses before the dollar collapse.

Figure 4 Mata's monthly chart

Unpredictable is:

1) Will the dollar change?

2) Will fiat currencies change?

3) Can Bitcoin go from a store of value to a reserve currency?

The above three factors determine the possibility of sudden changes in the Bitcoin market in 2024. I don't believe that opportunities come by waiting. Satoshi Nakamoto invented Bitcoin as an enterprising, not waiting. The bitcoin community blocked my account, showing me a fool! Some people's views are very outdated.

I express the same opinion like Hal Finney; I hope Bitcoin is great.

written in the back

To understand this article, you need to read chapters 10-13 of the article "Invite Satoshi Nakamoto to welcome the new world" and the previous sections 1-7 and section 8 of this series.

1. Full-text links

This article was published in Bitui Serial.

Chinese link:

https://www.bitpush.news/articles/tag/%E8%AF%B7%E5%87%BA%E4%B8%AD%E6%9C%AC%E8%81%AA

English link: https://en.bitpush.news/?s=Weisha+Zhu

2. Supplementary video explanation (over the wall in China)

This series of articles will be explained on Sun TV, and the articles and TV explanations are complementary. 10 episodes of the program have been made. The following is the program catalog:

Episode 1 Starting from the Bitcoin White Paper

Episode 2: Does Bitcoin Have Value?

Episode 3 The Reason for Satoshi Nakamoto's Anonymity

Episode 4 The Root of All Evils in Fiat Currency

Episode 5: Past, Present, and Future of Bitcoin

Episode 6 Blockchain Opens Pandora's Box; Satoshi Nakamoto Comes Out

Episode 7 Four conditions for the rapid growth of Bitcoin

Episode Eight Satoshi Nakamoto's Age, Gender, and Nationality

Episode 9 Cypherpunk - the birthplace of Satoshi Nakamoto's thought

Episode 10 None of the pioneers who died was Satoshi Nakamoto; he is still alive

It can be seen that TV corresponds to the 6 episodes of our article; that is, the program is the explanation of the focus of the article. Broadcast schedule: The broadcast schedule is as follows:

Episode 4 January 30 at 12:00 noon

Weekly 1, 3, 5

Sun TV's link is as follows:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dTend6oJ-8

The whole program is divided into two parts. The first part proves who Satoshi Nakamoto is, and the second part is about the Bitcoin standard. The program will continue, followed by discussions and Q&A, hoping to form a Bitcoin-based theoretical system. Users are welcome to leave messages in the TV comment area, and viewers will be selected to participate in the conversation.

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