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What Would a Trump Presidency Mean for Bitcoin?

Lincoln Murr

Summary: As the presidential election looms, crypto has become increasingly politicized. Former President Donald Trump has led the charge with lots of pro-crypto rhetoric, leaving Democrats scrambling to appease the tens of millions of crypto holders in the United States. Though Trump promises to be the “crypto president,” many questions remain unanswered about his actual impact ...

As the presidential election looms, crypto has become increasingly politicized. Former President Donald Trump has led the charge with lots of pro-crypto rhetoric, leaving Democrats scrambling to appease the tens of millions of crypto holders in the United States. Though Trump promises to be the “crypto president,” many questions remain unanswered about his actual impact on the future of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. 

During this election cycle, Trump has focused extensively on crypto, specifically Bitcoin, in an attempt to gather votes from a large portion of single-issue crypto voters, Silicon Valley tech workers, and average Americans who believe in Bitcoin's mission and values. In his speeches and the official GOP platform, he promised never to allow the creation of a central bank digital currency, preserve the right to self-custody assets, and defend the right to mine Bitcoin. 

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Trump also recently announced his vice president as JD Vance, an Ohio Senator who holds between $100,000-$250,000 in Bitcoin. This markets the first presidential ticket comprised of Bitcoin holders. Trump also recently stated that he believes JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, a staunch critic of Bitcoin, has “changed his tune a little bit.” This is a massive shift in opinion from someone who has called Bitcoin a fraud and a Ponzi scheme for years. Only time will tell if he genuinely changed his stance or is attempting to appeal to the Trump administration, who may task him with leading the US Treasury as its Secretary.

His pro-crypto stance will culminate on July 27th, when he takes the stage at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville among thousands of industry leaders and enthusiasts. There is a rumor that he will announce the creation of a strategic US Bitcoin reserve in Nashville, though this is yet to be confirmed. 

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Four years ago, a president's mention of Bitcoin or crypto would have been front-page news. Now, it happens on a near-weekly basis and is legitimately becoming a serious political issue. This fact alone has massive implications for the crypto market and demonstrates increasing legitimization and acceptance from the general public and lawmakers. 

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Though Trump’s promises and beliefs appear bullish for the crypto industry, the truth is much more messy. Trump has a history of making claims and not fulfilling promises, so in the worst case, all of his talk will amount to nothing. Billionaire investor Mark Cuban argues that the benefit of a Trump presidency on Bitcoin would not be his bullishness towards the asset but the general geopolitical instability, lower taxes, and tariffs that his administration would levy. 

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Another consideration is the consequence of Trump following through on his promises. Though the right to self-custody, mine, and no CBDC are undoubtedly positive developments, they are all things we currently have. Trump is not promising anything new or innovative but merely preserving rights to actions all US-based crypto holders already enjoy. Though there is some insinuation that a Trump-led administration would pursue less legal action against crypto companies and allow them to innovate in peace, this is far from guaranteed, especially since SEC Chair Gary Gensler, crypto public enemy #1, has his appointment until 2026. Though Trump could replace him at any time, dozens of other items are higher on the priority list than appeasing the crypto industry. 

What the industry truly needs is promises about proper crypto regulation. Beyond preserving rights for Bitcoin miners and custodians, we need clear rules on what is and is not a security, how tokens and protocols can share governance and revenue with token holders, and how traditional institutions and financial entities can begin using and interacting with blockchain-based applications. These promises are much more complex to make but significantly more critical to the long-term success of crypto in the United States and worldwide. 

Though a potential Trump presidency is gearing up to be quite favorable for Bitcoin, and some speculate that we may even see $100,000 BTC by the end of 2024 after his victory, the long-term outlook of the crypto industry remains relatively unchanged. Trump must first act on his easy-to-deliver promises and promote more significant innovation in the blockchain sector before he can indeed be deemed the crypto president.

By Lincoln Murr

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