What’s Next for Bitcoin After the Bitcoin 2024 Conference?

This past weekend, over 20,000 Bitcoin industry leaders gathered in Nashville, Tennessee, to discuss Bitcoin, announce new products, and hear from politicians about the future of Bitcoin in the United States. Now, with lots of new information revealed and developments made, let’s dive into what could happen to Bitcoin in the second half of 2024.

Some of the most prominent and exciting information came from the talks with politicians. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Tim Scott discussed their belief in Bitcoin on the first day. Scott said it gives Americans autonomy over finances and is an “essential part of achieving the American dream.” If Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, Scott will likely be the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, giving his words more weight than a random politician. In this role, he promised to pass crypto-related legislation and bring it to the Senate floor – a welcome change from anti-crypto chairman Sherrod Brown, who has expressed skepticism about cryptocurrencies, especially after the FTX collapse. 

Scott’s position will be critical in passing Cynthia Lummis’ ambitious Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill. It would see the US Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over the next five years, hold them for at least 20 years, and use it solely to pay off the national debt. Though this bill’s proposal is a watershed moment for the blockchain industry, it is far from likely to pass both the House and the Senate. Given the little that most politicians know about crypto, spending over $50 billion on Bitcoin at current and future higher prices is a tall order. Additionally, this bill was announced after Trump’s keynote address. Trump more than likely knew about the proposed legislation before his speech but did not choose to acknowledge it or support it in any way, which does not bode well for its passage. He would have known that supporting the bill would be a massive boost to him in the crypto community but likely has reservations about the boldness of the plan.

Trump's announcement that the Department of Justice would not sell more Bitcoin under his administration is a positive development, but it will not have a massive impact on Bitcoin for the rest of the year. If he is elected and this plan comes to fruition, it could start a domino effect among other countries to follow suit. Some may even go one step further than the United States and actively acquire Bitcoin in hopes that if, or when, the US government starts to do the same, they will have a massive head start on ownership of the potential global reserve currency. For this reason, this announcement is incredibly bullish but would likely not have any massive impact on the Bitcoin price unless other government announcements are made.

The November presidential election will likely be a period of high volatility for Bitcoin. Given each party’s current stance, Bitcoin may experience a slight increase in the case of a Trump presidency, but one that is partially already priced in since Trump is favored to win. On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin may experience similar downward price action. That being said, the Harris campaign has circulated rumors about her desire to reset relations with the crypto industry and promote sensible legislation and innovation in the United States. Whether these rumors materialize remains to be seen, and a pro-crypto shift by Kamala could guarantee a great next four years for the industry. 

Though no innovations from Bitcoin companies were announced, there was a major focus on Bitcoin L2s and the expansion of the DeFi ecosystem at the conference. The dozens of L2s building on Bitcoin will likely start to launch over the coming months, if they haven’t launched already, and begin the extremely difficult battle to acquire market share and mindshare among Bitcoiners. The most successful L2s will likely be the first to release a flourishing ecosystem of interesting and useful applications. Just as important is the security and trustlessness of the L2s, as Bitcoiners are hesitant to deposit their BTC into any system that could get exploited or has no guaranteed way to return funds to the mainnet. For this reason, the Bitcoin L2 boom will likely not start until after OP_CAT, a technical upgrade to Bitcoin that allows for trustless bridging to zero knowledge L2s, is implemented. Though there is no set date for the implementation to take place, development and acceptance of the upgrade are rapidly progressing, with OP_CAT already implemented on one of the Bitcoin developer test networks. 

These potential developments and narratives will amount to nothing if the macroeconomic environment weakens or if an FTX-level black swan event wreaks havoc across the industry. If everything remains as-is, the 4-year crypto cycle indicates that this fall and winter will lead to a massive bull market. This previously happened in the months following the 2016 and 2020 halvings, though history is not guaranteed to repeat itself, especially in the presence of massive institutions thanks to the ETFs. On the other hand, ETFs could supercharge this cycle to all-time highs, spurring a mass adoption and legitimization of Bitcoin, the likes of which we have never seen.

Though there are several different directions Bitcoin could go throughout the rest of the year, most of the news and narratives indicate that Bitcoin is shaping up for positive developments. The politicians' acceptance of Bitcoin, the development of more utility through a DeFi ecosystem, and the lasting effects of the halving could be the beginning of a lasting bull market. However, the effects of an anti-crypto president, a worldwide recession, or failed promises may hold BTC from its true potential. Regardless, the end of 2024 looks like one of the most important times in the history of cryptocurrency.

By Lincoln Murr

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