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US Non-Farm Payrolls Data to be Released Tonight, US Stocks May Experience Significant Volatility
Summary: According to reports, simulations by JPMorgan's trading department suggest that if the employment data released on Thursday mirrors the weak trend seen in the earlier ADP report, the US stock market could see significant selling. JPMorgan has outlined market reactions in different scenarios: - Addition of 85,000-105,000 jobs: S&P 500 index may fall by 0.25%-1.5%; ...
According to reports, simulations by JPMorgan's trading department suggest that if the employment data released on Thursday mirrors the weak trend seen in the earlier ADP report, the US stock market could see significant selling. JPMorgan has outlined market reactions in different scenarios:
- Addition of 85,000-105,000 jobs: S&P 500 index may fall by 0.25%-1.5%;
- Below 85,000 jobs: S&P 500 index could plummet by 2%-3%;
- Warning: In the worst-case scenario, the market may face stagflation (weak economic growth accompanied by high inflation) risks, with fiscal and monetary policies potentially becoming ineffective. The report specifically notes that as long as non-farm payrolls exceed 100,000, the stock market will still receive support. However, there have been instances of employment data outperforming expectations in the past, and this could happen again. JPMorgan predicts:
- Addition of 125,000-145,000 jobs: S&P 500 index may rise by 0.75%-1.25%;
- Exceeding 145,000 jobs: S&P 500 index gains could expand to 1%-1.5%.
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Link: US Non-Farm Payrolls Data to be Released Tonight, US Stocks May Experience Significant Volatility [Copy]
