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Institution: 'Big and Beautiful' Bill has Limited Actual Stimulus Effect on US Economy

Summary: Despite the US government touting its fiscal plan as a 'big and beautiful bill,' Lombard Odier struggles to see any optimistic aspects. The institution believes that this budget bill has almost no uplifting effect on the macroeconomic level and may even worsen the fiscal outlook. Strategic analyst Filippo Pallotti points out that the bill is ...

Despite the US government touting its fiscal plan as a 'big and beautiful bill,' Lombard Odier struggles to see any optimistic aspects. The institution believes that this budget bill has almost no uplifting effect on the macroeconomic level and may even worsen the fiscal outlook. Strategic analyst Filippo Pallotti points out that the bill is expected to expand the federal deficit by about $4 trillion over the next decade; if tax cuts are made permanent, the deficit could be even higher. Although tariff revenues can somewhat alleviate fiscal pressure, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is still projected to climb to 119% around 2034. Most tax cuts are unlikely to significantly boost consumption, with the largest spending cuts focused on healthcare and food assistance. Given this budget...

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