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Goldman Sachs: Trump Administration Expected to Increase Basic Tariff Rates to 15%
Summary: In a recent report, Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist in the United States, David Mericle, predicts that the basic 'equivalent' tariff rate in the United States will be raised from 10% to 15%, with copper and key mineral tariffs reaching 50% - a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. To reflect the ...
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist in the United States, David Mericle, predicts that the basic 'equivalent' tariff rate in the United States will be raised from 10% to 15%, with copper and key mineral tariffs reaching 50% - a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the impact of import tariffs in the 'initial observations,' Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for US inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its forecast for 2027 from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will lower GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%.
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Link: Goldman Sachs: Trump Administration Expected to Increase Basic Tariff Rates to 15% [Copy]
