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Key Points of the Federal Reserve's July Interest Rate Decision: FOMC Statement Comparison, Powell's Tenure, and Fed Independence
Summary: According to Jinshi's report, the key points of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision are as follows: FOMC Statement: 1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision may pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Directors Bowman and Waller expected to cast dissenting votes. 2. Statement Comparison: Substantial changes are unlikely, with a possible simplification ...
According to Jinshi's report, the key points of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision are as follows:
FOMC Statement:
1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision may pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Directors Bowman and Waller expected to cast dissenting votes.
2. Statement Comparison: Substantial changes are unlikely, with a possible simplification of economic uncertainty language and acknowledgment of first-half economic growth slowdown.
3. Balance Sheet Reduction: Likely to remain unchanged (monthly reduction of $50 billion in Treasury securities and $350 billion in MBS).
Powell Press Conference:
1. Rate Outlook: How will the two rate cuts implied by the June dot plot be viewed? Will clues be given regarding the September rate cut outlook?
2. Economic Data: Emphasis on the importance of data, continuing the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decision-making communication style.
3. Inflation and Tariffs: Likely to remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to price stability; if emphasis is placed on the inflationary risks of tariffs, it may be more hawkish than expected.
4. Tenure and Independence: Faced with frequent pressure from Trump, it is unlikely that substantial responses will be made, with an expected reaffirmation of maintaining independence and professionalism during the tenure.
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Link: Key Points of the Federal Reserve's July Interest Rate Decision: FOMC Statement Comparison, Powell's Tenure, and Fed Independence [Copy]
