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US Employment Data 'Squeezed', Increasing Pressure for Fed Rate Cut
Summary: In a surprising development, based on the preliminary results of the annual benchmark revision released by the US government on Tuesday, it is estimated that the non-farm employment in the US for the 12 months ending in March this year will be revised downward by 911,000, equivalent to a monthly decrease of nearly 76,000. The ...
In a surprising development, based on the preliminary results of the annual benchmark revision released by the US government on Tuesday, it is estimated that the non-farm employment in the US for the 12 months ending in March this year will be revised downward by 911,000, equivalent to a monthly decrease of nearly 76,000. The final data will be released early next year. Prior to this report, the government's non-seasonally adjusted employment data showed that employers added nearly 1.8 million jobs in the 12 months ending in March, an average increase of 149,000 per month. This adjustment by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicates that the recent slowdown in the labor market is occurring after a period of more moderate job growth, which may set the stage for a series of rate cuts starting next week. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently acknowledged that risks to the job market have increased, with two of his colleagues leaning towards lowering borrowing costs in July. Traders generally expect the Fed to announce a rate cut at the next meeting.
