QCP: Potential Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Corporate Profit Resilience Expected to Support Risk Assets and Bitcoin Before Year-End

According to QCP's daily market observation, the trend of Bitcoin remains consistent with overall news-driven risk sentiment - stabilizing around $103,000 during the Asian session after a drop in the US session. Despite the ongoing US government shutdown, a clearer resolution path is now in sight. The pullback in yesterday's ADP data has reignited concerns about a weakening labor market, especially ahead of the December FOMC meeting (December 9-10), with uncertainty remaining about the release timing of official BLS data.

The Senate has approved a temporary funding bill to extend government funding until January 30 next year, providing a short-term patch for fiscal issues. The bill has now been submitted to the House of Representatives, and if passed, will be sent to the White House for signing. While this measure avoids an administrative shutdown during the holidays, it also sets the stage for another deadlock early next year. This is a typical kick-the-can policy: temporarily eliminating tail risks without truly addressing structural issues. The market will remain highly sensitive to procedural obstacles or delays in the House vote. According to Polymarket data, there is currently a 96% probability that the government shutdown will end between November 12 and 15.

The uncertainty of the government shutdown, trade frictions, credit market volatility, and soft economic data suggest that there may still be temporary turbulence in the fourth quarter. However, the potential Fed rate cut expectations and corporate profit resilience are expected to support risk assets and Bitcoin before year-end. Looking ahead to 2026, the combination of monetary and fiscal policies remains supportive, providing continued favorable conditions for economic growth.

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