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Analyst: Bitcoin Decline a Short-Term Correction, Not Cycle Top
Summary: According to Bernstein analysts, the recent 25% drop in Bitcoin from its early October peak is more of a 'short-term correction' rather than the top of the current cycle. Despite some investors selling early based on the four-year cycle pattern from previous years, the current market structure is stronger than historical cycles. Over the past ...
According to Bernstein analysts, the recent 25% drop in Bitcoin from its early October peak is more of a 'short-term correction' rather than the top of the current cycle. Despite some investors selling early based on the four-year cycle pattern from previous years, the current market structure is stronger than historical cycles.
Over the past six months, long-term investors holding for over a year have sold around 340,000 BTC (approximately $38 billion), but this was almost entirely absorbed by net inflows of around $34 billion from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries. The institutional holdings of Bitcoin ETFs have also increased from 20% at the end of 2024 to the current 28%, indicating a more stable holding structure.
In response to concerns that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) may sell Bitcoin due to price declines, Bernstein analysts emphasize that the company's management has confirmed they will not sell any BTC, and their $61 billion holdings with $8 billion in debt remain manageable.
The report suggests that Bitcoin is not at a cycle top currently, but rather experiencing a routine pullback within a multi-year trend of institutional participation; if it stabilizes around $80,000, this pullback could present a potential entry opportunity. (The Block)
