Early Whales Clear Out 11,000 BTC, Institutions Increase ETF Holdings to 40% Against the Trend

According to 4E observations, early whale Owen Gunden cleared out the remaining 2,499 bitcoins (approximately $228 million) to Kraken on Thursday, completing the sell-off of about 11,000 BTC (approximately $1.3 billion) since October 21. Gunden, a former early arbitrage trader active on Tradehill and Mt.Gox, has long been in the top ten of the rich list. This round of sell-off lasted for over a month, ultimately reducing his bitcoin holdings to 0.

This selling pressure occurred at a time of extreme pessimism among retail investors. The CryptoQuant bull market index has dropped to 20/100, the most pessimistic range of this cycle; Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows of $2.8 billion in November, intensifying concerns about the end of the bull market.

Contrary to retail panic, institutions are increasing their holdings against the trend. The latest 13-F disclosure shows that institutions' holdings of the US spot Bitcoin ETF have jumped from 27% in Q2 2024 to 40%. Analyst Root pointed out that this figure is still a "conservative estimate" as only institutions with AUM exceeding $100 million need to report. Despite recent outflows from the ETF, the increase in institutional holdings indicates that some long-term funds are choosing to hold or even increase their positions during the adjustment.

Current BTC price is around $85,823. The market structure shows a typical divergence: • Retail side → panic selling, increasing exit sentiment • Institutional side → increasing ETF allocation during adjustment

4E Comment: The concentrated sell-off by early whales and the structural increase in institutional allocations have jointly shaped the current market's "sentiment low point - fund turnover" phase. Short-term fluctuations may still be amplified, but changes in fund flows and holdings structure will have a more profound impact on the future market direction.

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