QCP: Bitcoin Stabilizes Temporarily, Focus Shifts to Future Leadership Changes at Federal Reserve

According to QCP's daily market observation report, following Monday's intense volatility, the market has entered a wait-and-see mode, appearing stable on the surface but far from relaxed. Bitcoin has rebounded 5% from its low point of $86,000 and is quietly consolidating around the $90,000 mark; meanwhile, stocks and forex markets are floating ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, which is light on data but heavy on political implications. Beneath the surface calm, the market is evidently preparing for the next catalyst. The focus of the next market catalyst is increasingly likely to come from the Federal Reserve, especially its new leadership. Betting markets are rapidly changing, with Kevin Hassett's probability of becoming the next Fed chair estimated at around 85%, expected to be officially confirmed by early next year. The leadership transition comes at a fragile stage of monetary policy, raising questions about how the new leadership may impact the Fed's response mechanism.

Miran will resign in January 2026, Bostic in February, and Powell in May. These changes may lead the FOMC to adopt a more dovish stance than the market is accustomed to.

Next Week's FOMC: Limited Information, High Risks

The upcoming FOMC meeting introduces new variables. With no new CPI or NFP data during the meeting, policymakers' visibility is much lower than usual. Nevertheless, futures markets have priced in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point insurance rate cut next week. Market focus is shifting from simple inflation data to governance, policy inclinations, and institutional direction. Crypto Market: Temporary Relief, Lingering Issues

A major source of anxiety over the weekend has been temporarily alleviated. Strategy raised about $1.4 billion through stock issuance, extending operational funds to around 21 months and increasing mNAV to about 1.14. Management reiterated that BTC will only be sold when mNAV falls below 1.0. As a result, short-term market sentiment has stabilized, but structural pressures continue to keep the market vigilant. The next key risk event is the MSCI index component eligibility review on January 15, which could still trigger significant fluctuations in Strategy-related fund flows. Current Status

Currently, crypto assets remain relatively stable, but it is a tense stability, awaiting more clear signals. With limited macro catalysts and rising uncertainty in Federal Reserve leadership, digital assets are effectively in a holding pattern until policymakers release the next clear guidance.

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