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Next Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Rate Cut Likely, Hawk-Dove Debate in Focus
Summary: Next week marks the final Fed interest rate meeting of the year, with the hawk-dove debate taking center stage. The Fed is set to announce its rate decision on Thursday at 3:00 AM (UTC+8), followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Powell at 3:30 AM (UTC+8). According to CME FedWatch, there is an 84% ...
Next week marks the final Fed interest rate meeting of the year, with the hawk-dove debate taking center stage. The Fed is set to announce its rate decision on Thursday at 3:00 AM (UTC+8), followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Powell at 3:30 AM (UTC+8). According to CME FedWatch, there is an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week. This meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, with investors closely watching for diverging views among policymakers on rate cuts and signals from Chair Powell on future policy direction. Of the 12 FOMC voting members, 5 oppose or doubt further monetary easing, while 3 support a rate cut. Since 2019, there has not been a meeting with three or more dissenting votes, making dissenters closely watched. Key macro data and events include:
Tuesday:
RBA rate decision and press conference by RBA Governor Lowe;
Wednesday:
US Q3 Labor Cost Index; Bank of Canada rate decision;
Thursday:
FOMC rate decision and economic projections summary, press conference by Chair Powell; US initial jobless claims up to December 6;
Friday:
Fed releases US household financial health data for Q3 2025; FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker speak on economic outlook; FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester speak; Chicago Fed President Evans participates in a moderator discussion at the 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium.
Market Closure Reminder: Due to Christmas Eve, NYSE closes early on Wednesday at 02:00 Beijing time; US stock markets, European markets, South Korean markets, and Australian markets are closed on Thursday; CME precious metals, crude oil, forex, and stock index futures trading, as well as ICE Brent crude oil futures trading, are suspended all day.
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Link: Next Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Rate Cut Likely, Hawk-Dove Debate in Focus [Copy]
