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10x Research: Market Profit Predictions Driven by Elite Few, Majority Participants More Like 'Emotional Bettors'
Summary: In a breaking report, 10x Research points out in its latest series of studies (part two) that while the market often touts 'collective wisdom,' data shows that market accuracy and profits mainly come from a very small group of information-advantaged professional traders, rather than the general participants. The report states that the behavior of most ...
In a breaking report, 10x Research points out in its latest series of studies (part two) that while the market often touts 'collective wisdom,' data shows that market accuracy and profits mainly come from a very small group of information-advantaged professional traders, rather than the general participants.
The report states that the behavior of most users is more akin to sports betting, preferring narratives, emotion-driven decisions, and long odds betting; in contrast, small professional groups use pricing probabilities, risk hedging, balancing order flow losses, and expected convergence to systematically achieve stable returns.
10x Research's first part analyzed turning points in the market prediction structure, including liquidity growth rates, regulatory clarity, and institutional and retail investors entering the market at an accelerated pace, and pointed out that early advantages in new markets are usually captured by 'information-advantaged' individuals. The third part will provide ten actionable trading frameworks and real trading cases for market predictions.
The team believes that as the prediction market expands further in 2026, now is a crucial window to examine trading structures, 'understanding its core mechanisms before deeper liquidity and simple arbitrage disappear is crucial.'
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Link: 10x Research: Market Profit Predictions Driven by Elite Few, Majority Participants More Like 'Emotional Bettors' [Copy]
