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Macro Outlook for Next Week: CPI Data Release to Potentially Confirm Fed Rate Cut Cycle
Summary: Despite the Fed's expected rate cut this week and the release of dovish signals beyond expectations, the challenges faced in the field of artificial intelligence have led to a complex and divergent trend in the US stock and bond markets. Long-term US bond yields rose this week, with the 10-year yield increasing by about 5 ...
Despite the Fed's expected rate cut this week and the release of dovish signals beyond expectations, the challenges faced in the field of artificial intelligence have led to a complex and divergent trend in the US stock and bond markets. Long-term US bond yields rose this week, with the 10-year yield increasing by about 5 basis points during the Fed rate cut week. The macro outlook for next week includes speeches by Fed Governor Milan on Monday at 22:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams on economic outlook on Monday at 23:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic on economic outlook on Thursday at 01:30, US November non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY/core CPI YoY, US November seasonally adjusted CPI MoM/core CPI MoM, and US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 on Thursday at 21:30, and final values of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December and one-year inflation rate expectations for December on Friday at 23:00. The release of US CPI data next week will be a key turning point for the US dollar. If the CPI data is lower than expected (currently at 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target), it will further confirm the rationale behind the Fed's rate cut cycle, potentially putting downward pressure on the dollar; conversely, it could reverse this trend.
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