Citigroup: Upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls Report May Release More Contradictory Signals

According to Jinshi's report, the Financial Times analysis pointed out that the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report to be released next Tuesday will include data from October and November, providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the US labor market, ending months of partial blindness. After a contentious meeting this week, the Fed lowered rates to a three-year low, with several officials dissenting, with the debate focusing on whether to prioritize addressing high inflation or a weak job market.

Citigroup economists pointed out that the upcoming latest employment report may release more contradictory signals. The bank expects a decrease of about 45,000 jobs in October, but an increase of 80,000 jobs in November. Citigroup economists stated that this rebound may be more related to seasonal data adjustments rather than a true improvement in worker demand. They also predict the unemployment rate to rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters survey of economists shows an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Fed's own quarterly forecast shows a median year-end unemployment rate of about 4.5%.

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