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Analysis: Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls Report to Impact Market Depending on Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Summary: According to analysts, the core impact of tonight's non-farm payrolls report on the market will depend on whether it changes expectations for the Fed's rate cut pace and actual interest rate path: if employment and wages significantly outperform expectations, rate cut expectations will be reduced, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on gold; if ...
According to analysts, the core impact of tonight's non-farm payrolls report on the market will depend on whether it changes expectations for the Fed's rate cut pace and actual interest rate path: if employment and wages significantly outperform expectations, rate cut expectations will be reduced, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on gold; if data broadly meets expectations, the market will maintain a 'soft landing' pricing, with the dollar and gold mainly fluctuating; if non-farm payrolls weaken significantly and wages slow simultaneously, rate cut expectations will strengthen, leading to a weaker dollar and benefiting gold. However, if there is a structural divergence where employment weakens but wages remain strong, inflation stickiness and slowing growth coexist, policy expectations fluctuate, and both the dollar and gold experience increased volatility, with gold more likely to be under pressure.
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Link: Analysis: Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls Report to Impact Market Depending on Fed Rate Cut Expectations [Copy]
