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Fundstrat's Crypto Strategy Director Responds to Disagreement with Tom Lee: Still Bullish on BTC and ETH Impacting New Highs
Summary: In response to recent reports of differing market views between Sean Farrell, the cryptocurrency strategy director at Fundstrat under Tom Lee, and Tom Lee himself, Farrell clarified that their cautious outlook in the first half of the year reflected risk management rather than complete bearishness. While the current market pricing is nearly perfect, risks still ...
In response to recent reports of differing market views between Sean Farrell, the cryptocurrency strategy director at Fundstrat under Tom Lee, and Tom Lee himself, Farrell clarified that their cautious outlook in the first half of the year reflected risk management rather than complete bearishness. While the current market pricing is nearly perfect, risks still exist, including government shutdowns, trade fluctuations, uncertainty in AI capital expenditures, changes in the Fed chairmanship, tightening high-yield bond spreads, and low cross-asset volatility. Recent fund flows also show differentiation. Bitcoin is currently in a valuation 'no man's land.' In the long term, with major brokerages joining in, ETF demand should improve, but in the near term, pressures include original holders selling off, miner pressure, MSCI potentially excluding MSTR, and fund redemptions. Fundstrat has multiple analysts with independent research frameworks and different investment time horizons to meet various client investment goals. Farrell's research focuses on portfolios with a higher proportion of crypto assets and adopts a relatively more aggressive market operation strategy. Tom Lee's research caters to large fund management institutions and investors allocating 1%-5% of assets to BTC and ETH. Such strategies require high discipline and a long-term perspective to capture structural (long-term) trends for excess returns over time. Farrell aims to assist clients and subscribers with a higher proportion of crypto asset allocation (around 20% and above) to consistently outperform the market through active rebalancing in different cycles. Current assessment: a rebound may occur early in the year, followed by a possible pullback in the first half of the year, providing more attractive opportunities for year-end positioning. If the assessment is incorrect, Farrell leans towards waiting for confirmation signals. For investors interested in this outlook, Farrell still expects Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new all-time highs by the end of the year, potentially ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, smaller bear market.
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Link: Fundstrat's Crypto Strategy Director Responds to Disagreement with Tom Lee: Still Bullish on BTC and ETH Impacting New Highs [Copy]
