Coinbase: Perpetual Contracts, Prediction Markets, and Stablecoin Payments to Dominate Crypto Market in 2026

According to Coinbase Institutional, the core of the crypto market in 2026 will no longer be narrative-driven, but will depend on whether key market structures can continue to expand under stricter conditions. The report, authored by Coinbase's Global Research Director David Duong and researcher Colin Basco, suggests that the traditional cycle model centered around retail speculation, token issuance, and single protocol catalysts is gradually becoming obsolete. Perpetual contracts are identified as a key pillar of price discovery, with derivative trading volumes dominating most major exchanges. Despite a deleveraging adjustment in the derivative market at the end of 2025, Coinbase sees it as a structural reset rather than a decline in demand, noting that stricter margin requirements and risk control measures have enhanced the market's ability to absorb shocks. Additionally, Coinbase believes prediction markets are transitioning from experimental products to more sustainable financial infrastructure, with increased trading volume and liquidity attracting more non-native crypto participants. Stablecoins and payments are seen as the most practically valuable sectors, with their applications in settlement, cross-border transfers, and liquidity management continuing to grow and gradually integrating with automated trading and AI applications. Coinbase states that 2026 will be a critical year to test whether these core markets can continue to develop under high regulatory intensity and risk constraints. (CoinDesk)

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