VanEck 2026 Outlook: Limited Potential Decline for BTC in This Round, 2026 More Likely to Be a Year of Consolidation

VanEck's digital asset manager Matthew Sigel stated in the 2026 outlook that digital assets are showing complex but positive signals at the beginning of 2026. Bitcoin dropped by about 80% in the previous cycle, but the actual volatility has since decreased by nearly half, indicating that the potential decline in this round may be reduced to around 40%. The market has already absorbed about 35% of the decline. Meanwhile, the four-year cycle pattern in Bitcoin's history (often peaking after the U.S. presidential election) remains valid after the high point in early October 2025. This pattern suggests that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a sharp rise or crash. In 2026, global liquidity is mixed, with rate cut expectations providing support, but U.S. liquidity is slightly tightening due to the collision of AI-driven capital spending and a fragile financing market, leading to an expansion of credit spreads. Leverage in the crypto ecosystem has been reset after multiple washouts. On-chain activity, while still weak, is showing signs of improvement. In this context, Matthew Sigel recommends establishing a disciplined 1% to 3% Bitcoin allocation through a dollar-cost averaging strategy, increasing holdings during leverage liquidation, and reducing holdings during market speculation overheating.

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