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Analysis: Non-Farm Payrolls and Tariff Ruling Take Center Stage in Market, Venezuela Events Just Noise

Summary: According to reports, the US Treasury market's reaction to US intervention in Venezuela has been muted, with traders focusing more on events such as the US December 2025 non-farm payroll report set to be released on Friday. Since the release of the October and November 2025 non-farm payroll reports following the end of last year's ...

According to reports, the US Treasury market's reaction to US intervention in Venezuela has been muted, with traders focusing more on events such as the US December 2025 non-farm payroll report set to be released on Friday. Since the release of the October and November 2025 non-farm payroll reports following the end of last year's government shutdown, bond market investors have been waiting for clear and reliable labor market data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets believe that Friday's employment data may be enough to boost investor confidence. Additionally, the US Supreme Court may rule on the legality of Trump's global tariffs on Friday, the same day as the December non-farm payroll release, which could also have an impact on the market. US Treasury bonds approached a significant milestone on Tuesday, with the 10-year bond yield relative to the 2-year bond yield reaching the highest level in nearly 9 months, indicating traders are betting on a Fed rate cut in 2026.

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