Tom Lee's Bearish Analyst: Risk Clearing Event in First Half of Year May Intensify Volatility

In an interview, Sean Farrell, the head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, stated that Bitcoin is still expected to reach $1 million in the long term, with quality crypto assets having strong structural tailwinds. However, the first half of 2026 may see a risk clearing event leading to increased volatility, potentially causing Bitcoin to drop to $60,000 (deep value zone, buying opportunity). The second half of the year will bring improved liquidity, policy stimulus, and AI-driven growth, presenting excellent opportunities. Farrell believes Ethereum is seen as a small-cap tech stock by traditional asset managers. Benefiting from the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) narrative, he predicts Ethereum to reach around $4,500 by year-end. Regarding SOL, Farrell sees it competing with ETH for RWA market share but lacking support from traditional asset managers. Its advantages include high throughput, upgrades (such as Alpenglow, Firedancer), and potential inflation reduction. Price expectations: dropping to $50-75 in Q1/Q2, then rebounding to $220-260. After the risk clearing event, altcoins will be a great cocktail; altcoins with reliable tokenomics and strong traction, especially RWA-related, will perform well after ETH outperforms BTC. Tom Lee mentioned in an interview that Bitcoin may hit a new all-time high by the end of January 2026, while Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell stated in a report on the 20th that Bitcoin may drop to $60,000 to $65,000 and Ethereum to $1,800 to $2,000 in the first half of 2026.

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