Institutions: US December Non-Farm Payrolls Growth Expected to Weaken, Unemployment Rate to Drop to 4.5%

According to sources, institutions have analyzed that the growth of US employment in December may slow down due to cautious hiring by companies affected by increased import tariffs and investments in artificial intelligence. However, it is expected that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.5%, which may support market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates this month. The non-farm report expected to be released tonight is likely to show that the US labor market is still in what economists and policymakers call a 'no hire, no fire' pattern. This would also confirm that the US economy is in a phase of jobless expansion. In the third quarter of last year, economic growth and worker productivity surged, partly attributed to a sharp increase in spending on artificial intelligence. Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at Montreal Bank Capital Markets, stated: 'This is not entirely due to weak demand, as the economic performance seems decent, but companies are very cautious about hiring new employees. This may be related to a desire to control costs, perhaps due to tariff pressures, or because many companies believe that AI-driven automation will lead to productivity gains.'

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