Analysis: Bitcoin briefly breaks $92,000 as Powell investigation triggers surge, but ETF outflows and weak leverage demand suppress upside potential

According to reports from Cointelegraph, Bitcoin briefly surged above $92,000 on Monday due to a criminal investigation launched by US federal prosecutors against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Analysts question whether the independence of the Fed may be impacted, potentially benefiting alternative assets like Bitcoin. Despite the brief rally, traders remain cautious overall, mainly due to continuous outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and weak demand for leverage. Even with recent rebounds, Bitcoin is still down about 23% from its October 2025 high, while gold and silver hit all-time highs in 2026. This divergence in trends has led traders to question whether the narrative of Bitcoin as a digital store of value is weakening. Bitcoin futures annualized premium (i.e., basis) remains at a neutral bearish level of about 5%. Typically, when market sentiment truly turns bullish, the premium of Bitcoin futures relative to spot prices often reaches or exceeds 10%. More importantly, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $1.38 billion over four consecutive trading days. Furthermore, despite Strategy increasing its Bitcoin holdings by about $1.25 billion in the past month, the Bitcoin price has still failed to hold above $94,000 effectively. Overall, the attractiveness of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains subdued, as reflected in ETF fund flows and soft demand for leverage long positions in Bitcoin. This indicates that the probability of an unexpected surge in the short term, impacting $105,000, is relatively low.

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