Analysis: Influence of Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Weakening, Policy Forces Reshaping Trading Logic

Market analysis indicates a new phase dominated by policy signals, as the traditional four-year cycle model of Bitcoin, a core narrative, is weakening. Political and macro policy impacts on prices are gradually surpassing on-chain factors such as halving. Despite the strong performance of the US stock market in 2025, Bitcoin has lagged behind, reflecting market dynamics driven more by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than overall risk appetite. According to traditional models, early 2026 should mark the end of the cycle, but current trends show investors delaying this stage as policy factors take precedence. Institutional analysis suggests that pre-election fiscal stimulus and blurred boundaries between fiscal and monetary policies are creating a financial repression-like environment. With high government spending and pressured real interest rates, the attractiveness of traditional bonds and credit is decreasing, while the allocation value of digital assets is rising. Looking ahead to 2026, the market widely believes that the trajectory of Bitcoin will depend more on policy direction and regulatory progress, especially legislation on the structure of the US crypto market. Analysts point out that institutional demand brought by ETFs remains a long-term support, but policy changes will determine whether institutional funds will further enter the market.

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