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Bitwise: Bitcoin investors need to hold for at least 3 years to avoid losses, with nearly 50% probability of loss in short-term trading
Summary: According to reports, digital asset management company Bitwise Asset Management analyzed price data from July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026, showing that if investors hold Bitcoin for at least three years, the historical probability of loss is only 0.70%. The longer the holding period, the lower the risk of loss, with the probability of ...
According to reports, digital asset management company Bitwise Asset Management analyzed price data from July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026, showing that if investors hold Bitcoin for at least three years, the historical probability of loss is only 0.70%. The longer the holding period, the lower the risk of loss, with the probability of loss dropping to 0.2% for a 5-year hold and 0% for a 10-year hold. In contrast, investors holding for less than three years face higher risks, with probabilities of unrealized losses at 47.1% for daily holders, 44.7% for weekly holders, 43.2% for monthly holders, and 24.3% even for yearly holders. Bitwise noted that the current Bitcoin price is around $65,000, down about 50% from the peak in October 2025. However, the realized price for the 3-5 year holding group is around $34,780, meaning investors in this range are still in a roughly 90% profit state overall.
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Link: Bitwise: Bitcoin investors need to hold for at least 3 years to avoid losses, with nearly 50% probability of loss in short-term trading [Copy]
