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Macro Outlook for Next Week: Stagflation Concerns Resurface, CPI and PCE Data Key Variables
Summary: Amid escalating tensions in Iran, uncertainty about the future has led to volatile market swings this week. Recent data indicates the Fed will need to address rising inflation and declining employment to curb the possibility of stagflation. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the upcoming week (all times in Beijing ...
Amid escalating tensions in Iran, uncertainty about the future has led to volatile market swings this week. Recent data indicates the Fed will need to address rising inflation and declining employment to curb the possibility of stagflation. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the upcoming week (all times in Beijing time):
Monday 23:00 - US February New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Wednesday 20:30 - US February non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY; US February seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM;
Friday 15:00 - UK January three-month GDP MoM, January manufacturing/industrial output MoM, January seasonally adjusted goods trade balance;
Friday 20:30 - US January core PCE price index YoY/MoM, US January personal spending MoM, US Q4 real GDP annualized rate revised, US January durable goods orders MoM;
Friday 22:00 - US January JOLTs job openings, US March one-year inflation rate expectations preliminary, US March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary.
If core CPI and core PCE price index MoM exceed expectations, it may further support the US dollar; conversely, weak data could weigh on the dollar and boost a rebound in spot gold. Additionally, Oracle (ORCL.N) will release earnings report after the US market close on Tuesday.
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