Analyst: Bitcoin Indicators Suggest Current Phase Favors Bull Market Pause Rather Than Cycle End

According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel, the annualized adjusted MVRV ratio for Bitcoin has reached the 1.0 range, indicating that the short-term average (30 days) is essentially in line with the annual average (365 days). The annualized basis difference remains positive, with a horizontal trend due to two opposing forces: after a strong uptrend, the 30-day indicator cools in sync with volatility and profit-taking speed, while the heavy 365-day average still includes momentum from the past few months. The result is a contraction in the difference between the numerator and denominator, with the basis line neither declining nor accelerating upwards - the market is substantially digesting previous gains.

This situation leans more towards a pause in the bull market structure rather than the end of the cycle. As long as the annualized basis difference does not show a downward reversal, the current state should be seen as a balance rather than a trend break: the network is reallocating risk from impatient holders to more patient ones, with no signs of panic selling. The market's reaction to the current position in the coming weeks is crucial. At this stage, the market needs more time rather than a reversal in direction.

Related Articles