IOSG Co-Founder: Current Period Not Market Peak but Institutional Accumulation Phase, Bullish on First Half of 2026 Market

According to IOSG Co-Founder Jocy, 2025 was the darkest year for the crypto market, marking the dawn of the institutional era. A fundamental shift in market structure has occurred, with institutions now holding 24% of core data positions while retail investors have exited by 66%. Despite a 5.4% drop in BTC in 2025, reaching a historical high of $126,080, market dominance has shifted from retail to institutional investors. Institutions continue to accumulate at high levels based on cycles, not prices, while retail investors sell. This period is not the peak of a bull market, but an institutional accumulation phase.

In November 2026, there will be midterm elections. Historically, election years prioritize policy, making the investment logic for the first half of 2026 favorable due to policy honeymoon period and institutional allocation, with increased volatility expected in the second half due to political uncertainties. Risks include Federal Reserve policy, strong dollar, possible delays in market structure legislation, continued selling pressure from long-term holders, and uncertain midterm election results. However, risks also present opportunities, as the best positioning often occurs when sentiment is bearish.

Short-term (3-6 months): Range-bound between $87,000-$95,000, with continued institutional accumulation

Mid-term (first half of 2026): Driven by policy and institutions, targeting $120,000-$150,000

Long-term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, dependent on election results and policy continuity

This is not the peak of a cycle, but the beginning of a new one. 2025 marked the acceleration of institutionalization in the crypto market. Despite BTC's negative annual return, ETF investors demonstrated strong HODL resilience. While 2025 appeared to be the worst for crypto, it actually saw the largest supply turnover, strongest institutional allocation intent, clearest policy support, and broadest infrastructure improvements. Despite a 5% price drop, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, indicating optimism for the first half of 2026. Key factors for 2026 include progress on market structure legislation, potential expansion of strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity post-midterm elections. Long-term, improved ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next uptrend. When market structure undergoes fundamental changes, old valuation logic becomes obsolete, and new pricing power is established.

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