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Economists: US Employment Data Likely to be Significantly Revised Down, Potentially Fueling Rate Cut Bets
Summary: According to sources, in the year ending in March, US job growth may be much weaker than currently indicated by government data, highlighting a slowdown in the labor market even before the summer hiring slowdown. Economists at Wells Fargo, UBS, and Pantheon Macroeconomics predict that the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual benchmark revision data to ...
According to sources, in the year ending in March, US job growth may be much weaker than currently indicated by government data, highlighting a slowdown in the labor market even before the summer hiring slowdown.
Economists at Wells Fargo, UBS, and Pantheon Macroeconomics predict that the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual benchmark revision data to be released on Tuesday will show a decrease of nearly 800,000 jobs in March, averaging around 67,000 jobs per month. Nomura Securities, Bank of America, and Royal Bank of Canada suggest the revised number could even approach 1 million.
While this data is slightly outdated, a significant downward revision will indicate a significant weakening of labor market momentum last year, reinforcing market expectations for a series of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A second consecutive year of significant revisions to employment data could also provoke anger from US President Trump, who has criticized the accuracy of BLS data.
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Link: Economists: US Employment Data Likely to be Significantly Revised Down, Potentially Fueling Rate Cut Bets [Copy]
